Original Empirical Research

The IPO Grey Market Premium (GMP) Accuracy Index

An empirical analysis examining how accurately unofficial OTC Grey Market Premiums predict actual listing day prices across Mainboard and SME IPOs in India.

By TradeRight Quantitative Research Desk • Sample Size: 50 Indian IPOs • Open Creative Commons (CC BY 4.0)

Mainboard Correlation

0.86 R²

Strong statistical correlation between Day -1 closing GMP and official NSE pre-open discovery price.

SME Segment Variance

±16.8%

Higher deviation due to market maker quotes and fixed lot illiquidity on NSE Emerge & BSE SME.

Directional Hit Rate

88.0%

Predictive accuracy in determining whether an issue lists at a premium or discount.

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